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“Don’t get caught up in the numbers, it only takes one as we saw with Ian … to have major impact on us,” Emergency Management Director Bill Litton said. “We all need to be prepared and keep our eyes out.”

Litton gave his annual hurricane outlook presentation Monday to county commissioners. The storm season starts June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

Ian exposed the vulnerabilities to flooding in Osceola countywide after the storm left thousands of homes waterlogged for weeks. Now the county is expanding emergency response plans with help from the state and federal governments and officials are warning residents to start preparing now.

“As we’ve seen, depending on the rainfall amounts and the wind amounts that’s the key,” Litton said. “If it’s a slow-moving storm, we might have more impact from rain, but if it’s a fast-moving storm we still might have impacts.”

Hurricane season is set to bring multiple intense storms that people need to be more prepared for than usual as this year “stands on its own,” a hurricane expert has said.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will reveal its predictions on Thursday.

But the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Weather and Climate Research Team, led by Philip Klotzbach, has already released its own forecast, predicting 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes—storms of category three or higher intensity.

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Team member Alex DesRosiers, whose research specializes in hurricane intensity change, told Newsweek that their prediction of an “extremely active hurricane season” is “not something they do lightly.”

1st tropical wave forms — 9 days before the start of hurricane season

ORLANDO, Fla. — A tropical wave formed Tuesday — nine days before the official start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Chief meteorologist Tom Terry said the wave is the first to form in 2024, but it certainly will not be the last this season.

“The first of about 60 tropical waves is moving west over the Atlantic,” he said. “I don’t expect this one to develop, but record warm waters and more favorable overall conditions will lead to an active season ahead.”

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2024 Atlantic hurricane season is primed for storms with ‘rapid intensification’

Rapidly intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes are especially dangerous because they can give the public less time to prepare and catch people off guard. Here’s why AccuWeather meteorologists are concerned for 2024.

Along with the anticipation of an extremely busy Atlantic hurricane season, AccuWeather meteorologists are greatly concerned that conditions over much of the basin could have a significant number of storms that undergo rapid intensification. Where this occurs as storms approach land could greatly add to the risk to lives and property.

Rapid intensification is a term meteorologists use to define tropical storms and hurricanes that quickly gain strength. The threshold is at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less. This can affect how fast a tropical storm becomes a hurricane or a hurricane jumps one or more categories in less than a day’s time.

This season, more than others, do not underestimate a hurricane’s potential

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Rapidly intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes are especially dangerous because they can give the public less time to prepare and often catch people off guard. Predicting a storm’s peak intensity and its intensity at landfall is one of the most challenging aspects of weather forecasting, and a rapidly intensifying hurricane adds tremendously to that challenge.

“The general rule of thumb is that people prepare for one category up on AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes or the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale to allow for fluctuation in the strength of tropical systems,” AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, “However, a danger exists when a tropical storm or hurricane is undergoing rapid intensification as the storm potentially could become much more powerful, dangerous and destructive than even that one-level buffer might account for.”

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The AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes considers many consequences a tropical system may have in addition to winds, such as coastal inundation, freshwater flooding, topography and the population affected. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale accounts for a storm’s wind intensity only.

The greater the population affected and the more dense of a population center, the more time is needed for preparations and mandatory evacuations, if necessary. A large, dense population center, such as New Orleans, may need at least 72 hours’ notice in the event of a direct strike from a hurricane, according to NOLA Ready.

Unusually warm waters are a prime concern

“Key elements that we are focusing on for this year’s busy hurricane season include the ramp-up of La Niña (in the Pacific), which allows for less disruptive wind shear in the Atlantic,” DaSilva said. “But we continue to notice incredibly warm waters over much of the key development areas in the Atlantic.”

When warm water is combined with low wind shear and abundant moisture, the ingredients for rapid intensification are in place. Not every storm will undergo rapid intensification, but when the conditions are in place, the chances of its occurrence are much higher.

The minimum temperature threshold for tropical development is about 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Many areas of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and southwest Atlantic are already above that threshold.

Sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic Basin have never been higher in recorded history for this date than they are right now, DaSilva said. Generally, the ocean will continue to be warmed by the sun through August and into early September, aside from some temporary cool eddies that may develop.

“The fear is that as we enter the heart of the tropical season—from late August to early October—the sea-surface temperature may continue to eclipse last year’s record-breaking season,” DaSilva said. The warmer the oceans are, the more favorable the environment will be for tropical development and rapid intensification.” Read more here…

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